How Did ABAG Come Up With 1993 Homes for the Los Gatos Allocation? (Ex.Sum.)

Executive Summary:

1. The Regional Housing Needs Assessment (“RHNA”) is the process established in State law by which housing needs within each jurisdiction are determined as part of the periodic process (“cycle”) of updating local housing elements of the General Plan.
2. The 4^th Cycle RHNA (2007-2015) required Los Gatos to plan for 562 units
3. The 5^th Cycle RHNA (2015-2023) required Los Gatos to increase the planned units to 619, or a 10% increase
4. The 6^th Cycle RHNA (2023-2031) required Los Gatos to increase the planned units to 1,993, or 322% increase.
5. The increases were high for all cities in the Bay Area.
6. As a first step, The California Department of Housing and Community Development (HCD)is responsible for determining the number of housing units for which each region must plan, known as the Regional Housing Needs Determination (RHND). RHND is based on a population forecast for the region with specific adjustment for economic and demographic trends.
7. The 6^th cycle RHND for the ABAG region, which Los Gatos is in, is 441,176 new housing units.
8. What’s different in the 6^th cycle RHND from the 5^th and 4^th cycles?
   • For the 6^th cycle the State made major modifications to the process for determining ABAG’s RHND. In prior RHND cycles total housing was based primarily only on projected population growth (223,550 units). However, for the 6^th cycle the State added existing need (118,827 units) to the total RHND calculation. Existing need includes households that are currently overcrowded (defined as more than one person per room) or are overpaying for housing (defined as more than 30% of gross income). Additionally, the 6^th cycle made a major modification to the region’s current vacancy percentage (98,799 units) to provide healthy market vacancies to facilitate housing availability and resident mobility.
   • The 6^th cycle RHNA allocation for Los Gatos is compromised of the following elements:
   • Projected growth                730
     • Existing need and vacancy adjustment                  710
     • High Opportunity and Job allocation adjustment    553
     • Total 6^th cycle RHNA                                           1,993

9. The important point to note is projected population growth accounts for 37% of Los Gatos total 6^th cycle RHNA of 1,993.
10. The remaining units come from first-time adjustments the State has made to address existing needs, improving regional vacancy rates and an overallocation of housing units based on Los Gatos’ designation as a high opportunity area.
11. The adjustments made by the State in the 6^th cycle, were done to compel local governments to take immediate action to implement policies, strategies, and zoning changes to accommodate their RHNA allocations. The 6^th cycle RHNA allocation will establish a pattern of housing growth in the near term (2023 to 2031) that will anchor the foundation for how the Bay Area jurisdictions move forward on implementing the longer-term vision in Plan Bay Area 2050
12. The hope is that these adjustments will be made in the near term and that future RHNA will then only reflect the population growth as done in prior cycles.

Los Gatos Community Alliance

November 17,2021