Based on Table 3-1 from the final Land Use Element, the maximum allowable development at 100% redevelopment is 12,529 units. This was done by simply grossing up the new housing redevelopment column to 100%.
For example, if low density residential land use is assumed to have only 5% redevelopment yielding 13 new units, at 100% redevelopment it would be 20 times that amount or 260 units.
There are approximately 13,800 units reported by the State as of 2021 in the Town, with the Town being essentially built out. There is very little vacant land left. Any new units developed will substantially come from redevelopment of non-vacant lots, which Table 3-1 shows.
12,529 units represents a 90% increase, which is essentially a doubling of the Town’s current residential units. While this is possible under the permitted land uses, it is not very probable. However to fully understand the full impact of the changes in density, local jurisdictions routinely compute the maximum allowable development so residents understand what is now allowed under the zoning laws.
The problem we have with the Town is they have repeatedly refused to disclose the 12,529 units. Instead they have focused on a “projection” of 3,160 units as what would “reasonably be built” over the next 20 years. There has been no study published which substantiates the projection of 3,160 units. It’s a guess at best!! Additionally the Town has refused to provide us with the underlying spreadsheet which shows us how Table 3-1 was actually computed. The TA is very much aware of this issue since we have filed multiple public record requests for this information. If there is one party who has engaged in misleading statements, it is the Town!
There is a big difference between a “projection” of what might be built vs. what is legally allowed to be built. Our claim of doubling the housing units is focused on what is now legally allowed to be built as a result of changes made in densities.
Let us know if you have any questions.
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